#2. The Tyrany of Distance

I am sure that over the years you have heard:

(a) Sprinters, up to around 1600m.

(b) Middle-distance types, from 1600m up to 2000m.

(c) Stayers, producing their best at 2000m up to 2600m.

(d) All- rounders, good at sprints and up to 2400m.

and so on and so on….

However, 

Have you run 1km, then run 2km? Did you run the 2km as easily as you ran the 1km? Of Coarse not. So why do we think that a horse will run 2400m with the same stamina and gusto as it did in a 1200m race?

As humans, we realy do make silly assumptions.

What the EP System does is make “quantitative (numbers) race adjustments”. to adjust for the change in distance and the change  in ground condition.

Think about this. If you run 100m on grass, then run 100m on sand, I am sure that you would agree that the 100m on grass is not the same as 100m on sand. Yet we see that horse has run 1200m on a firm track and expect it to perform the same if it ran 1200 on a soft track.

Of the several Tyranies of Distance here, the main one is that 1200m is not 1200m if the ground conditions change.